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Real Estate Trends: Bright MLS 2024 National Housing Market Outlook

Saturday, December 9, 2023   /   by Richard Eimers

Real Estate Trends: Bright MLS 2024 National Housing Market Outlook

The Bright MLS 2024 National Housing Market Outlook predicts that next year will bring better conditions for homebuyers. Despite the challenges posed by affordability, buyers can expect a slowdown in home price growth, lower mortgage rates, and an increase in housing options. This shift will occur as life events prompt current homeowners to enter the market, providing more opportunities for prospective buyers.

The Bright MLS 2024 National Housing Market Outlook forecast signals several critical developments for buyers and sellers:

Mortgage rates will establish a new standard, dipping below 7% in the initial quarter and fluctuating between 6-6.5% before landing at 6.2% by year-end

The year's conclusion will witness existing home sales reaching 4.6 million, marking a 12.1% surge from the historically low figures in 2023, albeit beneath the standard home sales volume in a typical year.

Evolving family and financial circumstances will increase the number of sellers entering the market, resulting in a 7.6% upturn in inventory by the culmination of 2024.

The augmented inventory and heightened buyer activity will likely maintain home prices steady, as the median home price in the U.S. will ascend by a mere 1.5% to $394,200.

Escalating affordability hurdles and an upsurge in the availability of new homes will steer home prices downward in certain markets, primarily concentrated in California and Florida.
30 year fixed rate mortgage
The 30-year mortgage rate is expected to drop below 7% in the first quarter of 2024, continuing to decrease to 6.2% by the end of the year. (Bright MLS)

More Home Sales in 2024

Home sales will increase next year, following a prolonged period of subdued activity. In 2023, the housing market experienced a notable decline in home sales, reaching the lowest level since 2008 because of limited inventory, heightened mortgage rates, and soaring home prices, which dampened demand, particularly in the latter part of the year.

Nevertheless, there remains substantial pent-up demand for homeownership, particularly among younger households, whose homeownership rate still lags because of previous generations. Lower rates and increased inventory will drive the anticipated influx of buyers in 2024. However, affordability will remain a significant challenge, potentially deterring some prospective buyers from entering the market in 2024.

Stable Home Prices

The housing market will likely experience relatively stable home prices in 2024, with a modest 1.5% increase in the median home price in the U.S. compared to 2023. Factors like inventory offset by a rise in the number of buyers in the market will drive the projected growth in home prices.

Overall, the median home price in the U.S. will grow modestly, rising to $394,200 in 2024, a 1.5% increase over 2023.

Affordability Remains a Challenge

In 2024, the U.S. housing market will not experience widespread price corrections. However, certain local markets have seen rapid price increases, posing affordability challenges for potential buyers. Additionally, some metropolitan areas have witnessed a surge in new construction activity. 

This surge and decreased affordability may lead to price declines in particular markets nationwide. Based on an analysis of price growth, affordability, and construction trends, 10 of the 50 largest metro areas are forecasted to have lower median prices in 2024 compared to 2023. Notably, California and Florida dominate the list of regions with forecasted price declines, although no market is anticipated to experience a double-digit price drop next year.

2024 Housing Market National
2024 National Housing Market Outlook by Bright MLS

  beach road realty, richard eimers, eimers group

Beach Road Realty
Richard Eimers
17 Roundwood Drive
Inlet Beach, FL
Beach Road Realty

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